Theory behind UGM
Cellular model defined on a regular square grid.
State transitions among land uses from one time period to the next
Set of rules that
Five factors
Input/Output Coupling & Adaptive Self-Modification
Calibration
Main Objective of Task One
To extend and adapt the Clarke model so that it may be
used in conjunction with
other submodels of natural and social processes to help
explore complex crosscutting questions relating to urban change.
Linking Models must incorporate
1) Take advantage of empirical regularities
2) Utilize the explanatory power of causal models
3) Integrate the 'virtual laboratory' qualities of simulation
models
Sub Tasks for Task One
1) Review the formal structure, theoretical assumptions,
levels of description, classes of observables, and data quality needs of
a variety of models pertinent to
urban change, as outlined in the previous section, and
assess their
compatibility with generalized CA models as developed
by Clarke and others
2) Investigate under what conditions these other types
of models can
be usefully linked with the CA-based urban models, in
either a loosely coupled
or a tightly coupled configuration.
3) Formulate a set of measures for assessing, comparing
and classifying specific
aspects of the model parameters and outputs, both global
(e.g., stability, robustness,phase transitions, pattern descriptors) and
local (e.g., spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity in systems
properties and dynamics).
4) Formulate and outline general model structures suitable
for
the investigation of specific kinds of research and policy
questions involving
either primarily the basic urban morphology models (IME-1),
or other types
of urban change questions where urban morphology is one
of several key factors
(IME-2).
Expected Products/Output resulting from Task One
Year 1: A theoretical paper on integrated modeling
for the urban geographic literature,
explicating the role of complex systems theory and cellular
models in simulating actual
patterns of urban change. The special emphases in this
paper will be the
integration of social and natural phenomena and processes,
and the coupling of
dynamics at different levels of description.
Year 2: The development of the morphometric
and statistical measures
needed to allow rigorous model output analysis and comparison
as well
as effective calibration and validation.
Year 3: Adaptation of the framework to the needs of policy
formulation and
analysis and on the dissemination of both the theoretical
results and the more
applied findings of the research.
Support for this project is from the National Science Foundation :
Contact the project Web Master.