Modeling Land Use Change:
The State of the Art

What is land use? (cover vs. use)

What is land use  change?

Land use change in action

Land use transitions are slow and cumulative

Land use mapping

Land use change modeling variables

Change in space

Change by class: The transition matrix

Change sequences

National trends

Major problems

“Classic” models: Bid rent

Computer-based modeling:False starts

So what has changed?

Types of Models

USFS Model inventory
A Review and Assessment of Land-Use Change Models
Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choice
C. Agarwal, G. L. Green, M. Grove, T. Evans, and C. Schweik
(2000)

Models Surveyed

Models (2)

Models (3)

Models (4)

Model #7 Entry

Model #7 Entry (ctd)

Drivers in the 19 Models

Drivers (2)

Economic models

Economic-based models

GIS-based allocation

Cellular Automata

Urban Cellular Automata

SLEUTH CA Growth Rules

Spontaneous Growth

Creation of new spreading centers

Organic Growth

Road Influenced Growth

SLEUTH rule sequence

Behavior Rules

Patterns/process of land cover change

Deltatron Dynamics:

Deltatrons at work

A Deltatron is:

Deltatron Land Cover Model
Phase 1: Create change

Deltatron Land Cover Model
Phase 2: Perpetuate change

Prediction (the future from the present)

Land cover uncertainty

Agent based models

(Bio) Complexity

Examples

Integrated Modeling

GIS/EM: The integration challenge

Model integration

Slide 52

Scenario as model/plan bridge

Slide 54

Good scenario sets

Scenario Difference

Urban models in UCIME

Conclusion